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PERAMALAN KONSUMSI ENERGI LISTRIK DI KOTA PALEMBANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

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Forecasting the demand for electrical energy consumption is an important early step in planning and developing the availability of electrical energy. Accordingly, we call for a method to forecast the consumption of electrical energy precisely. In this research, the method employed to forecast electricity consumption in Palembang is the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) method and the Double Exponential Smoothing Method. The best ARIMA model worked to forecast electrical energy consumption is the ARIMA model (1,1,2). This model considers satisfied the parameter significance assumptions, particularly the normal residual independence test, the white noise assumption test, and the Smirnov Kolmogrof test, and involves the lightest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The ends established the MAPE value brought about utilizing the ARIMA method (1,1,2) was 5.8491%, while by utilizing the Double Exponential Smoothing method the MAPE value set up based on the value of 0.4 and 0.1 was 4.4675%. In this application, the Double Exponential Smoothing method is further valid because it offers an error value for forecasting close to the appropriate value of the electricity consumption data in Palembang City. Keywords: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) Method, Double Exponential Smoothing Method, Electricity Consumption prediction.

Availability
Inventory Code Barcode Call Number Location Status
2007001349T38357T383572020Central Library (REFERENSI)Available but not for loan - Not for Loan
Detail Information
Series Title
-
Call Number
T383572020
Publisher
Inderalaya : Fakultas Teknik Universitas Sriwijaya.,
Collation
xiv, 132 hlm.; ilus., tab.: 28 cm
Language
Indonesia
ISBN/ISSN
-
Classification
629.07
Content Type
-
Media Type
-
Carrier Type
-
Edition
-
Subject(s)
Teknik elektro
Konsumsi energi listrik
Metode ARIMA
Metode Double Exponential Smoothing
Specific Detail Info
-
Statement of Responsibility
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No other version available

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