Skripsi

TINGKAT VOLATILITAS HARGA KAKAO GLOBAL DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN DI INDONESIA SERTA PREDIKSI MASA DEPAN

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Penilaian

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Cocoa commodities in Indonesia are one of the contributors to the country's foreign exchange. Indonesia ranks third in cocoa production. However, in recent years, cocoa commodities have experienced significant price fluctuations, raising concerns about Indonesia's cocoa trade balance. Therefore, this research aims to (1) Analyze the level of global cocoa price volatility from January 2017 to September 2024, (2) Analyze the impact of global cocoa price volatility on Indonesia's cocoa trade balance, (3) Predict future global cocoa prices. This research activity will be conducted in January 2025 with a focus on the country of Indonesia. The research method used is historical data analysis through a quantitative approach. The historical data used are monthly periods from January 2017 to September 2024 obtained through official websites. The data processing method for the first objective is the ARCH-GARCH method (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), the second objective uses the ECM (Error Correcting Model), and the third objective uses the ARIMA Model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). This research concludes that (1) Based on the analysis of global cocoa price volatility from January 2017 to September 2024, it was found that cocoa prices experienced high volatility with a value of 1.22, particularly due to a price surge that began in 2023 and continues to the present, triggered by extreme weather in Africa, the main producing region. The main factors causing high price volatility include production instability due to the impact of El Niño, resulting in market demand being higher than the available supply. (2) Based on the analysis of the impact of global cocoa price volatility on Indonesia's cocoa trade balance for the period January 2017 – September 2024, it was found that cocoa price volatility has a significant and negative or opposite effect on Indonesia's cocoa trade balance. It can be interpreted that if the persistence of global cocoa price volatility increases further away from the average, the value of Indonesia's cocoa trade balance will continue to decline. The short-term elasticity value of cocoa price volatility in Indonesia is 11,057.01, (3) The forecast for world cocoa prices from October 2024 to December 2025 shows three main scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic. The projection of actual data and predictive data shows that the most accurate is the optimistic scenario.

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Availability

Inventory Code	Barcode	Call Number	Location	Status
2507002394	T171422	T1714222025	Central Library (Reference)	Available but not for loan - Not for Loan

Detail Information

Series Title

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Call Number

T1714222025

Publisher

Indralaya : Prodi Agribisnis, Jurusan Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Sriwijaya., 2025

Collation

xv, 73 hlm.; ilus.; tab.; 29 cm.

Language

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Classification

630.07

Content Type

Text

Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

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Subject(s)

Agribisnis--Kakao

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

MI

Other version/related

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