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PENERAPAN METODE SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG BIS RUTE KUNINGAN-PALEMBANG

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Penilaian

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The purpose of this study is to estimate the parameters of the forecasting model for the number of passengers on the Kuningan-Palembang bus route and produce a forecast for the 2022 period. The method used is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The data used is the monthly number of bus passengers from January 2015 to December 2021 which consists of in sample and out sample data. In sample data is used to generate model parameters, while out sample data is used for comparison and model evaluation of model parameters. The results of this study indicate that the best model for forecasting the number of bus passengers is the SARIMA model (2,1,3) (0,1,0)^12. The model contains parameters is μ=-0,00019,〖 ϕ〗_1=1,1488,〖 ϕ〗_2=-0,9412,θ_1=1,7778 ,θ_2=-1,7594,θ_3=0,772 and the mathematical equation is 〖 Z〗_t=Z_(t-12)+Z_(t-1)-Z_(t-13)-0,9412〖 Z〗_(t-1)+0,9412 Z_(t-13)+0,9412 Z_(t-2)-0,9412 Z_(t-14)+e_t-1,7778 e_(t-1). Based on obtained model produces an error as measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.5%, meaning that the model has good predictive ability for forecasting the number of bus passengers. The highest number of passengers for the 2020 prediction results, namely in October to November for each 209 to 214 passengers.

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Availability

Inventory Code	Barcode	Call Number	Location	Status
2207003702	T78331	T783312022	Central Library (Referens)	Available but not for loan - Not for Loan

Detail Information

Series Title

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Call Number

T783312022

Publisher

Inderalaya : Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Sriwijaya., 2022

Collation

xiv, 70 hlm.; ilus.; 29 cm

Language

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Classification

510.285 07

Content Type

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Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

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Subject(s)

Jurusan Matematika
Pengolahan dan Analisa Data di Bidang Matematika

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

SEPTA

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