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PENENTUAN PROBABILITAS TRANSISI KASUS TINGKAT RISIKO COVID-19 DI KABUPATEN OGAN ILIR MELALUI RANTAI MARKOV

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Penilaian

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COVID-19 is a disease caused by a new typed of corona virus, betacoronavirus. The COVID-19 virus caused respiratory tract infections. The rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus had reached the Ogan Ilir Regency area. Markov chain is a method that could been applied to model changes in the valued of a random variable or state from time to time. The markov chain analysis method could been applied to daily data of COVID-19 cases to determine the probability of transitioning the leveled of risk characteristic of COVID-19 cases. The purpose of the studied was to analyze the data and obtain the transition probability of the risk leveled of COVID-19 cases to steady state conditions. The data analyzed was daily data on COVID-19 cases for the period from 4 August 2020 to 9 March 2021 in Ogan Ilir Regency. The data source used was secondary data accessed through the official website of the Ogan Ilir corona task forced. The conditions observed from the daily data experienced three conditions, namely decreasing, constant, and increasing. The results of markov chain analysis on the suspect-probable case category data showed that in the three stated, the steady state transition probability for the decreasing state was 0.46%, the constant state was 97.7%, and the decline transition probability was 1. 84%. The results showed that the largest probability in the suspect-probable category was in a constant state. Likewise, for the category of suspect-confirmation, suspect-discarded, suspect-processed, confirmation of recovery and confirmation of death for the next long-term period tended have been in a constant condition Keywords: Markov chain, COVID-19, Steady State

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Availability

Inventory Code	Barcode	Call Number	Location	Status
2107004663	T63412	T634122021	Central Library (References)	Available

Detail Information

Series Title

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Call Number

T550342021

Publisher

Inderalaya : Prodi Ilmu Matematika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam., 2021

Collation

xvi, 67 hlm.:ilus. ; 29 cm

Language

Indonesia

ISBN/ISSN

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Classification

519.287

Content Type

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Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

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Subject(s)

Mipa Matematika
Rantai Markov - Risiko Covid

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

AA

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